The Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) has set a crude oil production target of 367.5 million barrels for oil firms operating in the country for the first half of 2025.
This target aligns with Nigeria’s broader goal to enhance its oil output, which is projected to reach 2.06 million barrels per day by 2025, including condensates.
The Commission also announced that local refineries will require 770,500 barrels per day (bpd) of crude oil for effective operation in the first half of 2025.
This demand represents approximately 37 per cent of the projected daily production of 2,066,940 bpd during this period.
NUPRC aims to enhance domestic refining capacity and ensure a steady supply of crude to meet local needs, aligning with the Petroleum Industry Act’s provisions for sustainable energy management in Nigeria.
Despite recent increases in production, challenges such as theft and underinvestment remain significant hurdles for achieving these ambitious targets.
These figures were obtained in the document titled “Crude oil production forecast of producing oil companies and the refining requirement of functional refineries in Nigeria the first half 2025”, released by the NUPRC on Wednesday.
According to the forecast, signed by the Commission chief executive, Gbenga Komolafe, the move is pursuant to Section 109 of the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA), 2021 and aimed at effective capacity utilisation of the nation’s domestic refineries by ensuring a consistent supply of crude oil.
The upstream regulator noted that “This comprehensive data provides insights into the projected crude oil needs for the refineries, crucial for understanding the energy landscape in Nigeria for the first half of 2025.”
It added that the forecast daily crude requirement for Refineries, which is 770,500 barrels per day, is about 37 per cent of the forecasted first half 2025 average daily production of 2,066,940 Bopd.
Recall that in October 2024, NUPRC launched Project 1 million Barrels which is expected to favourably impact the national production.
According to Komolafe, NUPRC is leveraging the capacity of upstream operators to meet the target daily production of 2,500,000 Bopd) in the short term.
“This strategic initiative aligns with Nigeria’s commitment to bolstering its domestic refining capacity and ensuring the sustainability of its oil industry. The first half of 2025 is expected to witness increased synergy between local refineries and producing companies, setting the stage for a more robust and self-reliant petroleum landscape in Nigeria”, he stressed.
The report also revealed that Port Harcourt Refinery, Dangote Refinery, Warri Refinery and other functional refineries will receive 123,480,500 barrels of crude oil between January to June 2025 which is the total crude requirement of refiners during the period.
The regulator estimated daily crude oil requirements for local refiners at 770,500 barrels per day and a monthly requirement of 23,812,000 barrels per month.
To meet the requirement, the NUPRC said it targets crude oil output to hit over two million barrels per day.
The production target is hinged on Project 1 million Barrels which was launched in October 2024.
The NUPRC is empowered by the PIA to ensure domestic crude supply to local refineries based on the ‘willing buyer, willing seller’ model.
The regulator said the move is pursuant to Section 109 of the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA), 2021 and it is aimed at effective capacity utilisation of the nation’s domestic refineries by ensuring a consistent supply of crude oil.
The forecast is for nine active refineries, according to the NUPRC.
A breakdown showed that the Dangote Refinery and Petrochemicals (FZE) requires 99,550,000 barrels from January to June 2025. The refinery’s daily requirement is 550,000mbpd while the monthly requirement is 17.05 million barrels.
The Warri Refinery has the second highest requirement estimated at 13,5875,000 barrels in the first half while the daily and monthly requirement are 75,000bpd and 2.325 million barrels respectively.
The Kaduna Refinery and Petrochemical Company Ltd have an estimated requirement of 3,960,000 barrels. The refinery’s daily requirement is 66,000bpd and 1,980,000 barrels.
Port Harcourt Refinery Company Ltd (Old) has a daily requirement of 60,000 barrels per day, monthly requirement of 1,860,000 barrels and a half year requirement of 2,868,000 barrels.
Port Harcourt-based Aradel Refinery is estimated to consume 1,267,000 barrels in the first half of 2025 while the daily need of the refinery is 11,000bpd and 215,000 barrels monthly.
OPAC Refineries in Delta State has a crude requirement of 5,000bpd, 150,000 barrels per month and 900,000 barrels in the first half.
Imo State-based Waltersmith Refinery and Petrochemical Company Ltd has a half year requirement of 814,500 barrels; a monthly and daily requirement of 139,000 barrels and 4,500 barrels per day.
Edo State-based Dupot Midstream Company Ltd has a half year, monthly and daily requirement of 360,000 barrels, 62,000 barrels and 2000bpd respectively.
Edo Refinery and Petrochemical Company Ltd has a half year requirement of 186,000 barrels, a monthly requirement of 31,000 barrels and a daily requirement of 1,000bpd.
“This strategic initiative aligns with Nigeria’s commitment to bolstering its domestic refining capacity and ensuring the sustainability of its oil industry.
“The first half of 2025 is expected to witness increased synergy between local refineries and producing companies, setting the stage for a more robust and self-reliant petroleum landscape in Nigeria.”
