Confidence Macharry, a Geopolitics and Security Analyst at SBM Intelligence, emphasised the need to restore traditional methods of dispute resolution, particularly in the north, which have declined in recent years. He argued that enhancing governance and ensuring better access to justice are essential for lowering crime rates nationwide.
A recent report from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) shed light on the growing security challenges facing Nigeria, particularly in the north. According to the NBS, between May 2023 and April 2024, Nigerian households reported nearly 52 million instances of crime, with the North-west region recording the highest number of cases.
During an interview with ARISE NEWS on Thursday, Macharry highlighted a significant geographical and socio-political disparity between the northern and southern regions of Nigeria, particularly when it comes to human development indices, which consistently show the north lagging behind the south. He pointed out that one of the critical factors contributing to insecurity in the north is the lack of access to governance and justice.
Macharry explained that there are many areas in the north where people have to travel long distances to find a police station, and this lack of governance creates a situation where people are more likely to take the law into their own hands. The analyst noted that the increasing crime rates, including kidnappings for ransom, are due to deeper structural issues.
He further stressed the importance of reviving traditional mechanisms for resolving disputes, particularly between farmers and herders, which have deteriorated in recent years.
“We have traditional rulers in the past who used to settle disputes between farmers and herders. You no longer have that. You now have the police,” he said.
The NBS report also revealed that the total amount paid in ransoms during the reference period was a staggering N2.23 trillion, with the average ransom per incident estimated at N2.67 million. In the same period, rural areas reported higher incidences of crime (26.52 million) compared to urban areas (25.36 million), reflecting a deeper divide in access to security and governance.
Macharry believes that poverty is another significant driver of insecurity in Nigeria, with many citizens resorting to criminal activities as a means of survival.
“In every statistic you look at, at least from the past three, four, five years, Nigerians are becoming a lot much poorer, and poverty leads to more desperation, and desperation leads to much more ingenuous ways by which people are trying to survive,” he said, explaining that if we manage to lift people out of poverty, even by 50% or 60%, there would be a noticeable decline in crime.
Furthermore, the NBS report highlighted a significant issue, of the 4.14 million reported cases of home robbery, only 36.3% were reported to the police.
Macharry noted that this lack of reporting is tied to a broader distrust in the security institutions. He emphasized that the police and other security agencies must rebuild public trust by showing their effectiveness.
“People have tended to distrust governance institutions because they have seen it not to be working, and they do not actually believe that it will work,” he stated.
“For these things to actually change, the police not only needs to be seen as meting out justice, it has to actually justify why people have to trust it.”
Frances Ibiefo
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