Since the return of democracy in 1999, politicking for the next election usually begins halfway into the life of an administration. But that trend is fast changing. Today, the regional dynamics are laced with political calculations for 2027 polls, with growing distractions for the real business of governance and development, SEYE OLUMIDE and ROTIMI AGBOLUAJE report.
Hardly had the Supreme Court given final verdict on the 2023 general elections that politicians started regrouping and closing ranks to strategise on how to wrestle power from President Bola Tinubu of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC).
The peculiarity of the last general elections does not stop at the presidential poll, even at the state level, similar developments are happening where some political apparatchiks are currently at dagger drawn, struggling to position themselves for power ahead of the 2027 polls.
However, this unhealthy development is already distracting the incumbents and affecting governance, especially at a time when Nigerians are facing the worst economic hardship.
But the regrouping of some political leaders, especially from the North, has been raising suspicions across the country over their intention. While it was believed that some northern politicians are not comfortable with some policies of the president aiming at restructuring the country, some said their gathering was to form a formidable pressure group to stop some of the bills currently at the National Assembly from passing through the legislative processes.
The political move started during the last Muslim festival, when former Vice President, Atiku Abubakar, who was also the presidential candidate of the major opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) in the 2023 poll visited the immediate past President, Muhammadu Buhari, and former military president, General Ibrahim Babangida, among others.
Since then, Buhari’s house in Daura, Katsina State has become a Mecca of sorts to northern politicians who are not comfortable with Tinubu’s style of administration.
Buhari, Babangida, and Atiku have never been known to be on the same page in the political history of Nigeria, but there seems to be an agenda in the offing to unite them.
Other suspicious and similar visits to the two former leaders include that of former governor of Kaduna State, Nasir, El-Rufai, who obviously lost out during President Tinubu’s cabinet selection. He also paid a visit to the national leader of New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP), Malam Rabiu Kwankwaso.
Also curious was the visit of former governor of Borno State, Ali Modu Sheriff to Buhari and Babangida. Sheriff was forced to leave APC in 2014 because of the “cold shoulder” he got at the party’s national convention.
Beyond that, he also had issues with President Tinubu over the choice of APC national chairman in 2014, just as he also had brawls with Atiku over the choice of national secretary within the party before he (Sheriff) exited the party.
Apart from the game of personal politics, regional interest is also fuelling early preparation for the 2027 polls, which again is creating a shift in the attention from governance.
Some northern elements have persistently complained that the Tinubu-led government is anti-north. For instance, the North, especially Fulani, from northwest are uncomfortable with some of the bills currently before the National Assembly.
The bills seeking for amendment of the 1999 Constitution to “Provide for Establishment of State Police and Related Matters”, bill on regionalism, resource control, National Animal Husbandry and Ranches Commission, otherwise known as anti-open grazing bill among others do not augur well with a particular section of the north.
The fear is that if the National Assembly, currently led by Senate President, Godswill Akpabio, from the South-South, succeeded in getting all these bills passed into law, the South would have gotten its desire to restructure the country, through acts of parliament and constitution amendment, which the northern oligarchs, of which most of the “August visitors and their hosts” belong did not want.
The Northern oligarchs have also expressed displeasure with the Tinubu’s government over the 2024 Budget, which they claimed was skewed against the zone, just as they felt shortchanged with the appointment of the cabinet members.
These, perhaps, are part of the reasons for the desperate efforts by some northern political leaders to bring southeast politicians to buy into the agenda of stopping President Tinubu in 2027.
Recently, the presidential candidate of Labour Party (LP), Mr Peter Obi, who represents southeast in the current political dispensation, was seen having political alignment with Atiku.
Only recently, it was rumoured that Atiku may possibly concede the PDP’s ticket to Obi in 2027 but the former Vice President was quick to deny such a plan. He pledged to support Obi if his party zoned its presidential ticket to the Southeast and that looks impossible with dwindling fortunes of PDP in southeast.
It was also said that the North might possibly float a new party, with Obi being considered for presidential candidate and former governor of Kaduna, El-Rufai as his running mate.
Going further, the intrigues for the 2027 elections are allegedly having untold impacts on the traditional institution, where political office holders are accused of unduly intervening in the selection and ascension of traditional leaders.
An example is the ongoing emirship crisis in Kano State, efforts to whittle the power of the Sultan of Sokoto, Alhaji Sa’ad Abubakar by the Sokoto State government and the lingering delay in the selection of new Alaafin of Oyo in Oyo State.
Analysing the scenario, a former Senator representing Kaduna Central Senatorial District in the 8th National Assembly, Shehu Sani, disclosed that the recent visits by some prominent northern politicians were plots to unseat Tinubu in 2027.
He said: “There is evidence of rallying of forces – political forces from the North – trying to use former President Buhari as a rallying point to evict the government of President Tinubu. And they hope to resurrect his political chance in the house of the masses and portray the government as one that has been undermining the North and one that has not been living up to its campaign promises to the region being that it has its highest votes from there.
“And I must warn that attempts to do that can create a serious problem for our country. Buhari was in power for eight years and there was no serious southerner that challenged his government in terms of trying to remove him from office.
“And secondly, we should know that before you think of power, we should think of the whole country. Nigeria is still a fragile nation. What will happen if southern politicians decide to also form the idea of uniting themselves and making a position that this is their stand? There will be no Nigeria.
“So, they should, in the interest of the unity of the country and the future of the country, sacrifice their personal ambition at least for 2027. And the North will have the moral right to ask for power after the second term of this administration.
“This desperation for power will not go well for the region, for the unity and collective peace of our country as a nation,” the former senator said.
President, Middle Belt Forum, Birtus Porgu, also told The Guardian that as long as Tinubu remains truthful to the ongoing move to restructure Nigeria through the bills seeking state police, anti-open grazing among other long time agitations to retool the governance system of Nigeria, the entire Middle Belt will support him come 2027.
Birtus who acknowledged the fact that freedom of speech and association does not stop anyone from meeting or planning as long as it is not inimical to the peace and security of the nation said that, “no particular ethnic group has the right to monopolise and suppress other regions, politically, socially and economically.”
He also disclosed that the Hausa ethnic nationalities in the north might soon come out to declare their stands against the domineering excesses of Fulanis. “We might soon see that happening.”
A human rights activist, Wale Okunmiyi, said one of the reasons preparation for 2027 polls has begun is because some politicians believed that President Tinubu didn’t win the majority vote in the last general election but that the power of incumbency and Supreme Court made him the president. “Therefore no time should be wasted to ensure his removal in 2027,” he said.
He also noted that Tinubu was the first astute politician to govern Nigeria since 1999, and that for such a person to win his party’s ticket in 2023, even when it was obvious that some stakeholders didn’t want him “no sensible politicians can wait till 2025 or 2026 before planning to remove him from office,” he said.
For the chairman of the Kaduna chapter of Christian Association of Nigeria (CAN), Pastor Joseph Hayab, it will not be that easy to remove President Tinubu from office, without a rigorous and long-time planning, especially with the fact he is trying to introduce restructuring through the National Assembly.
He said “What is gathering in the minds of Nigerians is restructuring and every Nigerian is talking about it. There is restructuring in their conversation, if Tinubu and those who understand politics of Lagos, he has only taken advantage of what he has been advocating by calling for restructuring. The truth is that this is what the majority of Nigerians are yearning for.”
He noted that it was wrong to conclude that the entire northwest does not want Tinubu or his return in 2027. According to him, this is not about an individual but about the reforms, which the current lawmakers are trying to achieve through the various constitutional amendments bills before the National Assembly.”
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