Presidential candidate of Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Alhaji Atiku Abubakar, is to win the February 25, 2023 poll. An interim report from a nine-month study, led by Dr. Oludare Ogunlana of June Group Research and Council for African Security Affairs (CASA) with other intelligence practitioners in the United States, Europe and Nigeria, pointed to the PDP candidate as a potential winner ahead of his All Progressives Congress (APC), Labour Party (LP) and New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP) rivals, Bola Tinubu, Peter Obi and Rabiu Kwankwaso, using four key variables: political geography, religion, resources and class.
It observed that the the study’s scope “is limited to observing political actors and interviews with stakeholders in organsations from across six zones of Nigeria and Nigerians in the Diaspora: political leaders, women groups, religious organisations, civil societies, trade unions and youth organisations. In each interview, we focused on five areas: personality of the candidates, ethnic influence, religion, power of incumbency, voters’ behaviour, emotions’ role, political socialisation and tolerance of diversity of political views.”
